Debunking the myth that a legal trade will solve the rhino horn crisis : a system dynamics model for market demand

摘要

There is considerable debate in the literature over whether or not to legalise the trade in rhinohorns. Here a system dynamics model is developed that considers five components: rhinoabundance, rhino demand, a price model, an income model and a supply model. The results indicatethat income elasticities are much greater than previously observed, while demand is relativelyinsensitive to price. At the same time, legalising the trade without income modification policies didnot prevent extinction. The theory of s-curve growth may provide some indications of future growthpatterns of Asian economies. Results suggest that, even though the demand curve for rhino hornmay be downward sloping as conventional theory predicts, non-conventional demand managementstrategies may be more effective than price orientated demand curve strategies such as tradelegalisation in curbing supply.